CS Regulatory Bulletin November 2025 (Non-Conf)
In our December 2024 Regulatory Bulletin, we predicted “a dramatic inflection point for the electricity market where supply and demand diverge and a secular period of ‘scarcity’ has formally commenced.” The results of 2025 validate that call, with no end in sight. We are seeing forecasted load growth unseen in 20 years and mind boggling in magnitude, at least half of which is driven by AI and data centers. Is there a bubble? Most assuredly. But apply whatever haircut you will against the load forecasts and what remains is still growth unseen in the last 20 years—which in today’s environment of backlogged interconnection queues, supply chain constraints, permitting delays and dislocated regulatory regimes—means higher energy, ancillary services and capacity prices for the foreseeable future. Please work with your Calpine sales representative to manage and mitigate your energy risk.